How about ninety-three percent accurate? Yes, that’s right, 93% accurate and 94% accurate, 95% accurate. These statistics represent the successful medal haul predictions made by one man in the past five Olympics. He claims to know next to nothing about sport and, what he does know plays no part in his thinking.

Dr. Johnson predicts Canada will win the most medals this month, 27 to be precise. It is a relatively bold statement to make. But Dr. Johnson says they have never finished in that position before.

Political structure, climate and home advantage will come into play heavily in Vancouver. Johnson argues that single-party regimes perform better than democratic ones. Meanwhile climate-wise, Austria’s advantage over Australia in Canada is blindingly obvious. Finally the hosts always do well. In the summer games, they typically garner 25 more medals, 12 of which are gold.

In the total medal table Germany are the favorites with the Betfair market at 2.28 but Dr. Daniel Johnson believes they will finish seventh in the standings with just 20. It is a tough call to make for a gambler considering Germany’s 29 medals in Torino four years ago.

As above mentioned, Johnson backs Canada 3.6 to top the pile, but USA and Norway are just one measly medal behind in his estimations. The former are 5.7 while the latter a hefty 19. The Scandinavians, therefore, are the value bet of these Olympics.

Johnson’s predictions for gold are not quite as accurate – a mere 92%, 89%, 86%, 85% and 84% for the past five Olympic Games.

Again Germany are one of the main opportunities to consider according to him. Johnson says they will get seven gold medals, the market is giving you 1.69 for anything under 10.5.

Finland, however, are predicted to be prime movers. They failed to register a gold in Torino but Johnson says they will get four this time. If they get half that total you win the Under 1.5 punt at 1.6.

The price for the US winning less than 9.5 gold medals is 1.35. Hardly tempting but Johnson says they will take five and if the injury scare to skier Lindsay Vonn is serious then they may struggle to even reach that.

Dr Johnson’s accuracy is impressive and there is a small history of disinterested academics understanding sport in a way participants and spectators do not.

The odds provided by William Hill suggest that German will top the medal table at 6/4 with hosts Canada 3/1 and the USA 4/1.

William Hill Odds for Country to Top the Medal Table:

6/4 Germany
3/1 Canada
4/1 USA
7/1 Russia
7/1 Norway
9/1 Austria
25/1 Sweden
40/1 Italy
50/1 France
50/1 Switzerland